Arcadium Lithium (ALTM): The One That Got Away... But That's Okay

When I first highlighted Arcadium Lithium (ALTM) on September 10th, the stock was trading at $2.19, see here:

Actually, I highlighted it on June 23rd, but it was at $3.20 then, when I was talking about the broader lithium market, here:

I saw the opportunity, the signals were clear - an undervalued play with strong fundamentals that seemed like it was poised to break out. Yet, despite everything lining up, I didn’t pull the trigger.

And here we are today, with ALTM hitting a high of $4.40 - literally a perfect double.

A classic case of what could have been.

Now, you might ask, Why didn’t I buy? Well, the answer is simple:

Timing.

I’m already invested in a company that will remain unnamed, that I think is going to double very shortly here as part of my Danny’s Double’s campaign. Stay tuned for more on that once it actaully happens, and I can launch my second of six picks.

However; even when the data points in the right direction, the decision to enter a trade must also align with your own market timing and risk appetite. Remember - we’re wealth builders, not wealth killers.

And sometimes, despite all the signals, you just have to sit one out. And that’s okay.

It’s important to remember: luck doesn’t always align with preparation.

But the missed opportunity reinforces one key thing - we’re on the right path!

Our approach of identifying undervalued companies and waiting for the right entry point is a sound strategy; and the fact that ALTM doubled validates the research and process.

However, let’s not forget that this wasn’t just any typical trade.

This is an event driven trade, and that event is there are rumors swirling about a potential buyout, which could see Arcadium valued between $4 billion and $6 billion.

At its current market cap of around $3.3 billion, there might still be room for more upside.

But, as we know, buyout rumors can be tricky to trade around. (Rio Tinto confirmed this rumor to be true on Monday 10/07, as non-binding LOI talks continue…)

This isn’t about regretting a missed double.

It’s about reinforcing the mindset of disciplined investing.

Sometimes, you’ll be perfectly positioned for a trade, and other times, you’ll miss one.

Either way, the market always presents new opportunities if you’re patient and prepared.

As investors, we must remind ourselves that not every opportunity is meant for us.

And even though I didn’t take the trade at $2.19, the market moves on, and so do we.

The important thing is that we stay tuned to the next opportunity - and there will always be another one.

Stay tuned for more; we’re on the right path.

Happy Hunting!