Copper’s Big Moment: Why This Sleeper Commodity is Set to Rip

Anyone who’s followed me for a while knows one thing—I love copper.

And if you’ve been reading my articles or watching my videos, you know exactly why.

And here:

So, it’s time for an update.

Where do things stand, and what are the best copper plays right now?

Why I’m Still Bullish on Copper

It’s simple: supply is shrinking, demand is exploding, and the price is primed to rip.

Take a look at this chart of major copper discoveries since 1980.

And deeper, harder to access, smaller, discoveries:

It’s pretty clear.

With dwindling supply, a dearth of new discoveries, and more demand than ever, it's only a matter of time before copper prices goes through the roof.

And now overlay demand with production:

See the problem?

We’ve been talking about copper as one of the most underrated sleeper commodities for nearly a year now.

Every single indicator is flashing green—it’s just a matter of who’s paying attention.

The Market is Slowly Catching On…

Copper futures just hit $5.11 per pound, the highest in ten months. Why?

• China rolled out new stimulus measures to boost household income, spending, and population growth—huge for industrial metals.

• The Trump administration is considering tariffs on copper imports. With the U.S. relying on imports for nearly 50% of its supply, any disruption could send prices soaring.

• The White House already slapped new base metal tariffs on Canada, raising fears copper could be next.

My pal from the from says it best:

Total copper demand is forecast to grow at an average rate of 2.6% per year to 2035, an increase from 1.9% from 2006-2021, to more than 50 Mt per year by 2050.

A new report by BHP, the world’s largest mining company by market capitalization, states this demand will be driven by:

• traditional economic growth

• the Energy Transition

• digital demand, primarily data centres

Meanwhile, supply?

Falling off a cliff.

Here’s why, in 7 reasons:

1. Declining Ore Grades

   1. The biggest copper mines in Chile and Peru are seeing lower grades. That means higher costs and lower production.

   2. Example: Chile’s Escondida mine (the world’s largest) is producing less copper every year.

2. Lack of New Projects

   1. It takes 10-15 years to bring a new large-scale copper mine online.

   2. Most planned projects are either delayed or canceled due to permitting issues and environmental concerns.

3. Political Instability & Supply Disruptions

   1. Chile and Peru (40% of global copper production) are dealing with strikes, protests, and new regulations.

   2. Panama shut down First Quantum’s Cobre Panamá mine, instantly removing 1% of global copper supply.

   3. Ongoing logistical challenges in Africa (DRC, Zambia) are further restricting output.

4. Surging Electrification Demand

   1. EVs require 2-3x more copper than traditional vehicles.

   2. The push for renewable energy and AI-driven data centers is creating unprecedented demand.

5. China’s Copper Hoarding

   1. The world’s largest consumer is stockpiling copper to secure strategic reserves.

   2. They’re also restricting exports of key refining materials, making it harder for the West to produce refined copper.

6. Underinvestment in Mining

   1. After the 2010s commodity bust, mining companies slashed exploration budgets.

   2. Now demand is spiking, but supply isn’t catching up fast enough.

7. Cost Pressures & ESG Restrictions

   1. Higher energy costs, water shortages, and new environmental regulations are raising production costs.

   2. ESG concerns are slowing down project approvals, making it harder to get new mines off the ground.

The Bottom Line: A Massive Supply Crunch is Coming

Analysts predict a severe copper shortage by 2026-2027.

That means prices will be well above $5 per pound and in my view, much, much higher.

This could be a huge problem for the energy transition, EV rollout, and infrastructure projects worldwide.

But, for copper miners?

It’s a golden opportunity.

The Copper Stocks I’m Watching, and how YOU can benefit…

First Quantum Minerals (FM)

• Annual copper production: 431,000 tonnes (up 54,000 tonnes from last year).

• Key assets: Kansanshi & Sentinel (Zambia), Cobre Panamá (Panama), Haquira (Peru).

• This one is important and that’s why it’s my top pick—because the Cobre Panama mine owned 100% by FM with 3.0 billion tonnes of proven and probable reserves, is one of the largest new copper mines opened globally in the past decade; and in my view, it’s on the verge of being re-approved. It accounts for over 5% of the country's entire GDP, and there’s no way the government will let that—along with 40,000 potential jobs—go to waste. The country needs this mine. With $10 billion already invested, once approval is back in place, I expect this stock to perform extremely well and outperform the average copper company.

Capstone Copper (CS)

• Capstone Copper's annual copper production capacity is approximately 406.7 million pounds in 2024, with a projected increase to 485.0–562.2 million pounds in 2025, sourced from its key operations, including the Pinto Valley mine in the U.S., Cozamin mine in Mexico, Mantos Blancos and Mantoverde mines in Chile, and its Santo Domingo development project.

• Production Capacity: 406.7 million pounds annually

Lundin Mining (LUN)

• Lundin Mining's total annual copper production capacity is approximately 813.65 million pounds in 2024, with a projected range of 668.00 million to 727.52 million pounds in 2025, sourced from its key copper operations, including the Caserones mine in Chile, the Candelaria mine in Chile, the Chapada mine in Brazil, and the Josemaria project in Argentina.

• Production Capacity: 813 million pounds annually 

Taseko Mines (TKO)

• Aside from their great symbol, Taseko operates the Gibraltar Mine, Canada’s second-largest open-pit copper mine.

• Production capacity: 106 million pounds, but, the company anticipates further growth with the development of the Florence Copper project, which is progressing toward full production. As of December 31, 2024, the project was 56% complete, and it’s expected to add an annual production capacity of 85 million pounds annually upon reaching full operation in 2026. Florence Copper project is with first copper production targeted before the end of 2025.

Hudbay Minerals (HBM)

• ​Hudbay Minerals Inc. is a diversified Canadian mining company with operations in Manitoba, British Columbia, and Peru. In 2023, Hudbay produced 131,691 tonnes (approximately 290.3 million pounds) of copper, marking a 26% increase from the previous year. ​

• Production capacity: Approximately 337.3 million pounds annually

Final Thoughts

The copper squeeze is real, and the market is finally waking up. Demand is growing, supply is shrinking, and prices are only going higher.

If you’re looking for exposure to one of the most explosive commodities of the next decade, now’s the time to pay attention.

The only question left—who’s taking action?

And as always, Happy Hunting!

D. Brody.