Gold’s Breakout: Why $3,000/oz Might Be Just the Beginning

Gold’s been on a tear, and if you’ve been watching the price action, you know that the yellow metal isn’t just for central banks and doomsday preppers anymore.

UBS and JP Morgan just lifted their targets on gold to $3,000/oz over the next 12 months, and I think they’re onto something….

Let’s break it down.

Gold hit $2,956.15/oz recently, smashing UBS’s long-held forecast.

The price action is telling us something: demand is relentless. 

The World Gold Council just reported a record 4,974 metric tons of gold demand in 2024.

And the big players? Central banks.

They’ve been net buyers for three straight years, buying up over 1,000 metric tons in 2024 alone.

That’s serious buying pressure...

Now, add to that the backdrop we’re in—elevated geopolitical risks, sticky inflation, and a market increasingly betting on rate cuts from the Fed.

Gold is the ultimate “risk-off” trade, and right now, it’s proving its worth.

UBS initially thought gold was trading above its fair value, but their own risk case is starting to look like the base case.

They now see gold holding at $3,000 through the rest of 2025 if global GDP growth slows and the Fed cuts rates more aggressively—both of which seem more likely by the day.

Goldman Sachs is on the same page as they recently updated their forecast to $3,100 per ounce by December 2025, up from its previous estimate of $2,890.

This revision is primarily attributed to sustained central bank demand for gold.

Additionally, Goldman suggests that if policy uncertainties, including tariff concerns, persist, gold prices could move as high as $3,300 per ounce by year-end.

One of the most interesting takeaways from Goldman’s research is the concept of gold as a barometer for both fear and wealth.

We’ve seen this dynamic play out before—during the financial crises of 2000, 2008, and 2020.

But now, it’s becoming structural, especially as central banks continue hoarding gold as an alternative to the dollar-backed system.

So, how do we make money off this?

In my opinion the best way to get exposure to gold’s upside is a mix of major producers and high-upside small caps.

• Majors: The big names like Barrick Gold (GOLD) and Newmont (NEM) offer stability, solid dividends, and leverage to higher gold prices. These are the “safe” plays if you want exposure without the wild swings.

• Mid-tiers & Juniors: If you’re looking for higher risk, higher reward, the mid-tier gold miners are where things get interesting. Companies like Agnico Eagle (AEM) or Kinross Gold (KGC) provide more upside than the majors, but still have strong established production.

• Explorers & Small Caps: This is where you go for 10x potential—but also serious volatility. If gold moves past $3,000, these will move first and hardest. Names like West Red Lake Gold (TSX:V-WRLG), Osisko Mining (TSX:OSK), or Aris Mining (ARMN or TSX:ARIS) could see outsized gains; and it would be rude not mentioning my own gold project, Fortress Gold, which will be listing in the middle of Q2 on the TSX-V after the company closes a $5M RTO round.

If you’re already in gold, it might be time to DCA up.

If you’re not, waiting for pullbacks could be a smart way to scale in with the Trump volatility we’re seeing.

Either way, it’s looking like gold’s bull run is far from over, finally, as we’ve been waiting for this since 2011…

What do you think? Are you buying into gold’s move, or do you see another asset class with better upside? Let me know.

Next up ill be covering Silver and how I think we’re seeing one of the most undervalued Silver markets of the century, trading at a 91:1 ratio. More on that next time.

As always, Happy Hunting!